This weekend the Northern and Southern Hemispheres go to war in the Rugby World Cup, with every game this quarter-final weekend consisting of a Northern side against a Southern one:
Wales v South Africa – Saturday 17 October, Twickenham Stadium, KO 4pm
France v New Zealand – Saturday 17 October, Millennium Stadium, KO 8pm
Ireland v Argentina – Sunday 18 October, Millennium Stadium, KO 1pm
Scotland v Australia – Sunday 18 October, Twickenham Stadium, KO 4pm
Historically, the Southern Hemisphere have been the more successful side – winning 6 out of the 7 so far. However, this does not mean the weekend will be a Southern whitewash.
Wales v South Africa
Wales have played the Springboks 30 times since 1906 and have only won twice. However, the second win was in last year’s Autumn Internationals series so Wales have more than an outside chance. Even despite their current injury crisis Wales were able to bring back a 10 point deficit against England to beat them at home, and ran it close with the Wallabies, in an exciting, yet low scoring defeat at Twickenham last weekend. Rugby is Wales’ national sport so Wales are hungry for world cup glory (having only ever come third in their most successful campaign – back in 1987).
The odds are against Wales this weekend. South Africa have won the world cup twice, however, they failed to reach the semi-finals at 2011’s world cup, losing to the Wallabies in the quarter-finals.
Both teams lost a match in the Pool stages. Both are looking strong. This game could come down to the wire.
France v New Zealand
France play New Zealand in a world cup quarter-final at the Millennium Stadium this Saturday…sound familiar to anyone? In 2007 the French caused a massive upset when they defeated the favourites, New Zealand, in Cardiff in the quarter-finals. After a dominant first half for the All Blacks, the French managed to defeat them 20-18 with a late try from Yannick Jauzion and conversion by Jean-Baptiste Elissalde. This meant for the first time EVER New Zealand did not reach the semi-finals of the tournament. Even after winning the 2011 edition of the cup this is still a sore memory for many Kiwis.
France and New Zealand have played each-other 55 times since 1906, of which New Zealand have won a massive 42 times. However, only 6 games have been played between the teams in Rugby World Cups, of which, the French have won 2. Interestingly, France and New Zealand are the only two teams to have been kicked out once in the quarter-final. After this Saturday only one will keep the record.
The world No 1s are in impressive form having only lost 3 matches in the last 3 years. The most recent loss was to South Africa in October 2014. The French, conversely, lost to Ireland last weekend. The last time France beat New Zealand was in June 2009. It’s definitely New Zealand’s game to lose. However, it’s a common maxim in Rugby Union that one of two French sides show up… either they play abysmally and get defeated. Or they play beautiful Rugby and more often than not win. Very rarely is there an in-between. Form and statistics seem to have very little bearing on the quantum anomaly that is French Rugby – It just depends on the day.
Ireland v Argentina
Ireland and Argentina have played each-other very rarely historically so this will be an interesting match regardless of the result. Argentina are in-form at the moment. They came second in their Pool, even giving New Zealand a hard time at Wembley stadium in September (leading 13-12 at half-time). Ireland on the other hand have had their fair share of world cup woes recently.
Argentina have played Ireland 15 times, winning 5. However, their last victory over the Irish was in 2007. The Irish are also in good form currently, despite their woes, winning the Six Nations earlier this year and not losing a match in their Pool.
Despite the quality of the current Argentina side I’m tempted to give the edge to Ireland.
Scotland v Australia
Australia came top of the ‘pool of death’ winning every game. The two-time world champions currently appear to be THE force to be reckoned with in the quarter-finals. With key players Ross Ford and Jonny Gray both suspended for 3 weeks apiece, due to one bad tackle, Scotland are very clearly the underdogs in this match. However, Scots like being the underdogs. It won’t be the first time they’ve caused an upset – they upset Japan twice in the last month after so selfishly beating them, and then defeating Samoa blocking the Cherry blossoms’ ascension to the quarter-finals. But in all seriousness, the Scots have caused Rugby upsets before (defeating Australia 9–6 in the 2012 Scotland tour of Australia, Fiji and Samoa) and should not be discounted.
Scotland and Australia have played each-other 28 times. Of which the Aussies have won 19. However, Scotland have won half of their last 4 tests against the Wallabies. Moreover, Scotland, like Wales, are hungry for world cup glory – with a proud nation of sports fans behind them, who’ve already been disappointed by their Football team recently, Scotland Rugby will show up as a point of pride.
The world cup has never been won by a team that has lost in the Pool stages. So going by that Australia, Ireland and New Zealand are the favourites. In my opinion, the most likely scenario is that by the end of the weekend only Ireland out of the Northern hemisphere will be left (though the other 3 teams, especially Wales, have a fair shot at it). I’ll be overjoyed if the North triumph in the quarter-finals. After-all, winter IS coming.
my ignorant opinion 